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Ron Cowan and his cohorts at city hall have been scrambling to salvage his scheme to get his hands on the Mif Albright course; most recently by trying to seduce the youth sports community to his side.

But three key facts cannot be ignored. First, strictly from an economic standpoint, the swap is not even a break-even proposition for the city. The value of the deal to the city consists of what it's getting from Cowan. That's cash and the North Loop property. According to Cowan and his confreres, since the appraised value of the North Loop property is $8 million, the deal is worth $15.2 million, the same as the Mif property.

In fact, the value of the North Loop property to the city depends on the purpose for which the city can use it. The city-commissioned appraisal valued the property for commercial and residential uses. But the city does not intend, and legally cannot, use it for these purposes. Accordingly, the number provided by the appraiser is irrelevant.

Unfortunately, the city did not ask the appraiser to value the North Loop property for the recreational use the city actually would make of it under the swap. Accordingly, there is no objective measure of what it's worth to the city. But it is surely worth a lot less than $8 million.

Second, Cowan in fact is not contributing $3.5 million toward reversing the effect of years of neglect in maintaining the golf complex.

Cowan's plan requires building a new par-three course and reconfiguring nine holes of the Jack Clark course in order to do so. Kemper Sports has budgeted $1 million for the "new Mif" and $2.5 million for "South Course reconfiguration/new greens." If these estimates are accurate, all, or a vast majority of, the $3.5 million earmarked for golf under the swap will be eaten up by costs incurred solely to make the deal fly.

The burden of bringing the Chuck Corica Golf Complex back up to par thus will fall squarely on the new operator. Kemper Sports has proposed to invest $1 million up front and fund another $2.5 million over fi ve years. The $3.5 million total is far short of the $6.25 million the National Golf Foundation deemed necessary to renovate the two 18-hole courses.

Third, even the city's own projections show that the golf complex should be able to survive, without any helping hand from Cowan and without any subsidy from the city, for at least the next 10 years — provided that the city stops taking money for the General Fund.

"Scenario One" on the Park and Recreation Department's Web site assumes that revenues remain fl at, expenses increase 3 percent per year, and transfers to the city stop after this fi scal year. Under those assumptions, the golf complex generates operating profi ts in each of the next seven years and adds about $2 million to the Golf Enterprise Fund during that period — money that can be used to rebuild the infrastructure. Operating losses begin in fi scal year 2018-19, but the draw down still leaves $2,718,095 in the Enterprise Fund at the end of 10 years.

And, of course, if rounds played actually go up — as the National Golf Foundation has predicted they will nationally — or if the city fi nds an operator with an incentive to rein in costs, there will be more operating profi ts and more reserves available for capital improvements.

In the end, Cowan may achieve his goal. But let's hold off on the parade.

Robert T. Sullwold is an Alameda resident.