Courtesy SF Bay Conservation and Development Commission

Map showing areas expected to be inundated by rising sea levels by 2100. Areas in light blue are currently above sea level. By the end of the century they won't be. The vast majority of the main island of Alameda won't be affected, other than beaches.

A rising tide may lift all boats but global warming will sink large swaths of Alameda and the Bay Area, according to long-range research on local climate change impacts unveiled by a state official Tuesday.

Both Oakland and San Francisco airports will be underwater in 100 years' time — even under best-case scenarios developed by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, said Will Travis, the state agency's executive director. Travis spoke at an Alameda Rotary Club luncheon at the Chuck Corica Golf Complex.

Travis predicted more frequent, more intense storms in the future that will batter the coastline and see the San Francisco Bay envelop virtually all the areas created by ambitious landfill operations in the first three quarters of the 20th century. "We are in much the same predicament as the captain of the Titanic," Travis said. "Once he looked up and saw that iceberg it was too late. It was inevitable."

The issue is so big and complex that individuals are powerless to alter the disastrous course the planet is on, and only widespread planet-wide collective change can slow or reverse the phenomenon, Travis said.

The somber assessment came the same day that National Geographic's Web site reported the "runaway collapse" of a 160 square mile ice shelf in Antarctica. The ice shelf is about seven times the size of Alameda.

Change is coming. Travis told about 60 members of the group that climate change would make the Bay warmer, higher and saltier, likely causing vast changes in the number and types of marine life. "We need to give up our dreams of restoring the Bay to what it was in the past," he said.

While scientists weigh the efficacy of constructing storm gates at the Golden Gate, Travis said wetlands restoration and higher density housing are the strongest arrows policy makers have in their quivers. "Tidal wetlands absorb flood waters like a sponge and they remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere," he said, noting his agency's efforts to return several sprawling South Bay salt ponds into wetlands habitat. "This, more than anything — more than changing light bulbs, more than buying Priuses — is the single biggest thing we can do to stop global warming," Travis said.

There's little individuals can do, Travis said, although he made a pitch for making sure vehicle tires are adequately inflated and reducing the amount of driving. Travis cited statistics showing that 50 percent of the greenhouse gases emitted in the Bay Area are transportation-related. That compares with 41 percent for California as a whole and 14 percent worldwide. Travis attributed part of Bay Area's larger figure to longer commutes.

A smaller industrial sector and lack of coal-fired power plants, common elsewhere, also skew the statistics.

Travis said he was certain to generate much angry e-mail with his other suggestion: that citizens demand more high-density housing. "The next time there's a public hearing about a housing development, rather than complaining about traffic or views you should be testifying that it's not big enough."

Travis said officials are considering constructing a system of levees to keep the airports and other areas dry.

"I live at the Estuary at Harbor Bay ... and I have to wonder," said Carolyn Schuetz, a past Rotary Club president. Schuetz said she has been aware of the issue for quite some time. "For my next car I'll probably think about a hybrid," she said. She currently drives a Chrysler 300.

Marvin Hamon, a principal at Hamon Engineering, who rode his yellow Trek bicycle to the meeting, said he's already taken steps. He doesn't own a car, takes the bus or carpools but mostly telecommutes and changed his light bulbs long ago. "Most of my work I can do electronically," Hamon said.

Travis said California's willingness to take on global warming is having an impact. "I am convinced that the president would never have mentioned global warming in his 2007 State of the Union speech, except that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, when signing AB 32 (Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006), had Tony Blair on a satellite uplink when he signed it on Treasure Island," he said. Travis said the act broke through "the last citadel of denial — the White House."

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