Mike McMahon, AUSD school board vice president, and immediate past president, is deliberate, chooses his words carefully, and is very straightforward. He is able to explain things about the Alameda Unified School District I've never quite understood before.

He refers several times to the Doomsday Scenario that will be posed if the new, long-term parcel tax measure to be put to the voters doesn't pass. Without naming names, he says, "If the measure fails, there will be only one high school in Alameda, one middle school, and seven elementary schools..." (Instead of the two high schools, three middle schools and 10 elementary schools we have now.)

Reminds one of that old Mad Magazine satire: "Subscribe to this magazine, or we'll shoot this dog!"

McMahon hopes it doesn't come to that, but he knows that the odds of taxpayer approval, considering the current recession, unemployment, voter distrust and the number of times the district has asked to be bailed out, are slim indeed. A two-thirds majority is required, and in 2008, the latest parcel tax, Measure H, barely passed and was immediately challenged in the courts.

Either way, the seven private schools in Alameda may see increased enrollment, or there may be even more new private schools established.

The campaign theme for Measure H — "Keep Alameda Schools Excellent" — was a little tone-deaf and more than a little over the top, accompanied by the threat of cancellation of sports and music and arts programs. And that reference to excellence, considering the state of Alameda schools, was more than a little iffy.

But as McMahon describes the dire situation faced by local schools, it becomes clear that such a scenario is not rhetorical, but realistic. For example, three schools have gone charter, and another will do so in September of this year, for a total of more than 600 students who do not count toward AUSD enrollment figures, which show a somewhat deceptive decline of some 900 students.

And over the past 10 years, parents have made greater use of special education demands, in an amount more than $5 million higher than state and federal reimbursements, with the U.S. government picking up less than 20 percent of the tab. Meanwhile, after employee pension investments tanked in the dot-com bust, those costs to the district have climbed to more than $1 million annually.

A key feature of President Obama's "Race to the Top" plan — which may not provide immediate relief to AUSD — is merit pay. And awarding such an incentive will require school districts to evaluate the performance of teachers and administrators, and tie such evaluations, in part, to student test scores. This provision has been bitterly opposed by the teachers unions, but Governor Schwarzenegger persisted.

Class size reduction was also created by the State in the mid '90s. This program provided approximately 80 percent of the funding and each district provides the remaining 20 percent. With class size reduction there are 50 additional teachers at the K-3 level costing the district approximately $3,700,000, with Alameda paying $500,000.

If the new parcel tax initiative passes, it will last for a decade, will still be applied on a split-rolls basis to residential and commercial properties, (which prompted the lawsuits), will include rental units and will provide a short, unadvertised opt-out period for seniors. And it will replace Measures A & H.

Fully 85 percent of all new funds will go, as the current budget allocates, to teacher and staff salaries and benefits.

Superintendent Kirsten Vital says that an advisory group did discuss what they thought voters might tolerate. Those dollar limits were, per year, $499 for homeowners, (a 60 percent increase of $190 per year and a nine-year extension past 2011), up to $250 per unit for multi-unit dwellings and 12 cents to 13 cents a square foot for commercial property owners, with a $5,999 annual cap, (compared to $9,500 now).

Whether Alameda voters will approve such increases, especially those on low or limited incomes, or operating small businesses, is doubtful. They might just choose that Doomsday Scenario instead.